« Looking for an Acrobat Javascript Genius/PDFKit Genius | Main | February is another Wii-wwy good month for Nintendo »

The plural of speculation is not "data"

Of course, some folks thought that this year's conference would be smaller before the show even started. The biggest offender, (for lack of any attempt at cogent analysis or support for his hypothesis) was Sven on Tech. His first attempt at this was "Will CES hurt Macworld Next January", based on the idea that if CES and Macworld happen at the same time, one must suffer, and of course, the one would be Macworld. The basis for this hypothesis? A 5.5% reduction in attendance for January 2002, according to a c|net article.

Now, what had happened about oh, three months before Macworld and CES of 2002? I'll wait while you get your calendars. Yeah. Sven kind of ignored that fact, and statements from CES about how the decline in attendance was more due to travel jitters from the 9/11 attacks. Sven also "forgot" to point out that CES's attendance had an eighteen percent drop in attendance for that year. If we apply Sveninan "logic" to this, then I can just as accurately say that Macworld caused an 18% drop in CES attendance for that year.

That would be, of course, inane, but it's exactly as supportable as Sven's hypothesis.

Sven's next post on this was is bizarre "Hot or Not: CES or Macworld" post. Yeah. There we go.

Don’t worry about if CES steals attendance from Macworld this year due to both happening on the same week or not. Nah, let’s get down to the true meat of the two competing shows and vote whom really is hot or not.

His next two posts, based solely on what looked to be one, possibly two days on the show floor, talked about how the crowds seemed lifeless and "much less" than last year.

Perhaps Sven should try using real math when he counts.

Honestly, using two days on the show floor alone as your only basis for the show being better or worse than last year's is like licking a picture of a lollipop and saying it sucks because it tastes "papery and dry".

However, in comment #10 of the Will CES hurt Macworld Next January post, Sven says:

While I won’t take the bet, I have no problem admitting if I am wrong as I have in the past.

Well Sven? I know at least Shawn King and I are rather interested in seeing if you come through on this. Not that I'll be surprised if you don't, but hey, it's hard to type whilst dining on Corvus.

Technorati Tags: Macworld Expo, Eating Crow

Categories: Macworld Expo

Posted by John C. Welch at 12:19 | Permalink

Comments

Warning for Notes users: The commenting system uses HTML.
I know this will be scary for some of you, especially Notes fans. However, open standards, rah-rah.
If you want to use less-than or greater-than signs, or other similar characters that HTML reserves,
you'll simply have to learn to do it the HTML way. Luckily, HTML is kind of popular, no matter what
your re-educators have told you, and you can easily find help on the intertubes.

In Macworld Expo news, we see that for the 2007 conference, attendance was up by 19%, from 38,441 in 2006 to 45,572. I'd say I'm surprised at that increase, but I'd be lying. I had no doubt whatsoever that the numbers would show a sizable increase. Even with Apple only announcing a small number of new products, the overall show rocked. \n\nOf course, some folks thought that this year's conference would be smaller before the show even started. The biggest offender, (for lack of any attempt at cogent analysis or support for his hypothesis) was Sven on Tech. His first attempt at this was \"Will CES hurt Macworld Next January\", based on the idea that if CES and Macworld happen at the same time, one must suffer, and of course, the one would be Macworld. The basis for this hypothesis? A 5.5% reduction in attendance for January 2002, according to a c|net article. \n\nNow, what had happened about oh, three months before Macworld and CES of 2002? I'll wait while you get your calendars. Yeah. Sven kind of ignored that fact, and statements from CES about how the decline in attendance was more due to travel jitters from the 9/11 attacks. Sven also \"forgot\" to point out that CES's attendance had an eighteen percent drop in attendance for that year. If we apply Sveninan \"logic\" to this, then I can just as accurately say that Macworld caused an 18% drop in CES attendance for that year.\n\nThat would be, of course, inane, but it's exactly as supportable as Sven's hypothesis.\n\nSven's next post on this was is bizarre \"Hot or Not: CES or Macworld\" post. Yeah. There we go. \n
Don’t worry about if CES steals attendance from Macworld this year due to both happening on the same week or not. Nah, let’s get down to the true meat of the two competing shows and vote whom really is hot or not.
His next two posts, based solely on what looked to be one, possibly two days on the show floor, talked about how the crowds seemed lifeless and \"much less\" than last year. \n\nPerhaps Sven should try using real math when he counts.\n\n Honestly, using two days on the show floor alone as your only basis for the show being better or worse than last year's is like licking a picture of a lollipop and saying it sucks because it tastes \"papery and dry\".\n\nHowever, in comment #10 of the Will CES hurt Macworld Next January post, Sven says:\n
While I won’t take the bet, I have no problem admitting if I am wrong as I have in the past.
Well Sven? I know at least Shawn King and I are rather interested in seeing if you come through on this. Not that I'll be surprised if you don't, but hey, it's hard to type whilst dining on Corvus.\n

Technorati Tags: Macworld Expo, Eating Crow